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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 1 at the 80

Arizona Cardinals 7 – Seattle Seahawks 7

What Actually Happened

(5:35) (No Huddle) 6-J.Conner up the middle to ARI 22 for 2 yards (57-C.Barton).

The Three Options

GO -0.43 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 74% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 79, worth +0.99 EP
  • 26% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 80, worth -4.37 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

PUNT -1.58 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 37, worth -1.58 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model