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Washington Commanders

HC Ron Rivera
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Dallas Cowboys

HC Mike McCarthy
Sunday 2021-12-26 · 20:20 AT&T Stadium, Arlington US 🏟 Dome Spread 10.5 O/U 45.5

Win Probability

WAS
37.9%
DAL
62.1%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • DAL defense: -0.162 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
  • WAS offense: -0.041 EPA/play over its last 8 games (21st in the league)
  • DAL offense: -0.050 EPA/play over its last 8 games (23rd in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised

Predicted Final Score

WAS 20
–
DAL 25
Projected margin: DAL by 5 Projected total: 45

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 16

WAS

Landon Collins S Out Foot
Deshazor Everett S Out Not injury related - personal matter
William Jackson CB Out Calf
Daniel Wise DE Out Knee
Antonio Gibson RB Questionable Toe
Curtis Samuel WR Questionable Hamstring

DAL

Tyron Smith T Out Ankle
Israel Mukuamu S Questionable Illness

Pulled fresh for 2021 week 16 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

WAS 14
–
DAL 56

Prediction missed by 37 pts on margin, 25 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 07:47 TD DAL (7:47) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short right to 21-E.Elliott for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 0 – DAL 6
  • Q1 03:14 TD DAL (3:14) 4-D.Prescott pass short right to 86-D.Schultz for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on WAS-34-D.Roberts, Defensive Holding, declined. WAS 0 – DAL 13
  • Q1 02:27 TD DAL (2:27) (Shotgun) 4-T.Heinicke pass short middle intended for 35-J.Williams INTERCEPTED by 90-D.Lawrence at WAS 40. 90-D.Lawrence for 40 yards, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 0 – DAL 20
  • Q2 14:53 TD WAS (14:53) (Shotgun) 4-T.Heinicke pass short left to 24-A.Gibson for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass caught left flat WAS 6 – DAL 21
  • Q2 10:40 TD DAL (10:40) (Shotgun) 21-E.Elliott left end for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 7 – DAL 27
  • Q2 02:35 TD DAL (2:35) 78-T.Steele reported in as eligible. 4-D.Prescott pass short right to 78-T.Steele for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 7 – DAL 34
  • Q2 00:10 TD DAL (:10) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short left to 19-A.Cooper for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 7 – DAL 41
  • Q3 06:12 TD DAL (6:12) 5-T.Way punt is BLOCKED by 32-C.Clement, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, RECOVERED by DAL-59-C.Golston at WAS -1. TOUCHDOWN. WAS 7 – DAL 48
  • Q4 14:24 TD DAL (14:24) 10-C.Rush pass short right to 17-M.Turner for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 7 – DAL 55
  • Q4 02:51 TD WAS (2:51) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-K.Allen pass short right to 87-J.Bates to DAL 1 for 12 yards (18-D.Kazee). FUMBLES (18-D.Kazee), and recovers at DAL 0. TOUCHDOWN. WAS 13 – DAL 56

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 DAL 4th & 16 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (11:42) 5-B.Anger punts 47 yards to WAS 21, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 1-D.Carter to WAS 28 for 7 yards (84-S.McKeon; 29-C.Goodwin).

  • Q1 WAS 4th & 4 at the 55
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (6:22) 5-T.Way punts 50 yards to DAL 5, Center-54-C.Cheeseman. 88-C.Lamb ran ob at DAL 26 for 21 yards (95-C.Toohill).

  • Q2 WAS 4th & 6 at the 56
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (6:37) 5-T.Way punts 56 yards to end zone, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, Touchback.

  • Q2 WAS 4th & 9 at the 53
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 27%

    (1:49) 5-T.Way punts 42 yards to DAL 11, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, fair catch by 88-C.Lamb.

  • Q2 DAL 4th & 2 at the 40
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.30 EP
    p(convert) 57% p(FG) 59%

    (:18) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short middle to 86-D.Schultz to WAS 26 for 14 yards (20-B.McCain). DAL-86-D.Schultz was injured during the play. His return is Questionable. PENALTY on WAS-20-B.McCain, Unnecessary Roughness, 13 yards, enforced at WAS 26.

  • Q3 WAS 4th & 10 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (14:05) 5-T.Way punts 53 yards to DAL 22, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, downed by WAS-2-D.Brown. Injury Update: Francis Bernard has a groin injury and has been ruled out for the remainder of the game.

  • Q3 DAL 4th & 16 at the 84
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (12:05) 5-B.Anger punts 54 yards to WAS 30, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 1-D.Carter to WAS 37 for 7 yards (87-J.Sprinkle).

  • Q3 WAS 4th & 6 at the 59
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (10:28) 5-T.Way punts 53 yards to DAL 6, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, downed by WAS-48-D.Forrest.

  • Q3 DAL 4th & 7 at the 77
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (8:14) 5-B.Anger punts 62 yards to WAS 15, Center-44-J.McQuaide, downed by DAL-29-C.Goodwin.

  • Q3 WAS 4th & 15 at the 90
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (6:12) 5-T.Way punt is BLOCKED by 32-C.Clement, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, RECOVERED by DAL-59-C.Golston at WAS -1. TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q3 WAS 4th & 1 at the 21
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 64% p(FG) 91%

    (2:19) (Shotgun) 4-T.Heinicke pass incomplete short middle to 13-A.Humphries (30-A.Brown).

  • Q4 WAS 4th & 6 at the 55
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (11:39) 5-T.Way punts 54 yards to DAL 1, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, downed by WAS-38-W.Smallwood.

  • Q4 DAL 4th & 1 at the 90
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.48 EP
    p(convert) 74%

    (9:56) 5-B.Anger punts 51 yards to WAS 39, Center-44-J.McQuaide, fair catch by 1-D.Carter.

  • Q4 WAS 4th & 2 at the 25 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 53% p(FG) 87%

    (4:03) (Shotgun) 8-K.Allen pass short left to 13-A.Humphries to DAL 19 for 6 yards (25-N.Wright).