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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Washington Commanders 4th & 9 at the 53

Washington Commanders 7 – Dallas Cowboys 35

What Actually Happened

(1:49) 5-T.Way punts 42 yards to DAL 11, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, fair catch by 88-C.Lamb.

The Three Options

GO -1.02 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +2.76 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 53, worth -2.82 EP
KICK -1.34 EP
  • 27% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.90 EP
  • 73% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 49, worth -2.57 EP
PUNT -0.70 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 15, worth -0.70 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model