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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Washington Commanders 4th & 4 at the 55

Washington Commanders 0 – Dallas Cowboys 7

What Actually Happened

(6:22) 5-T.Way punts 50 yards to DAL 5, Center-54-C.Cheeseman. 88-C.Lamb ran ob at DAL 26 for 21 yards (95-C.Toohill).

The Three Options

GO -0.63 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.42 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 55, worth -3.18 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.93 EP
What Happened
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 16, worth -0.93 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model