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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Washington Commanders 4th & 6 at the 59

Washington Commanders 7 – Dallas Cowboys 42

What Actually Happened

(10:28) 5-T.Way punts 53 yards to DAL 6, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, downed by WAS-48-D.Forrest.

The Three Options

GO -0.92 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.59 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 59, worth -3.19 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -0.81 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 18, worth -0.81 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model