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Las Vegas Raiders

HC Rich Bisaccia
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Kansas City Chiefs

HC Andy Reid
Sunday 2021-12-12 · 13:00 GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City US 💨 Windy Spread 10.0 O/U 48.0

Win Probability

LV
43.8%
KC
56.2%
💨 Windy

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • LV offense: +0.032 EPA/play over its last 8 games (13th in the league)
  • Patrick Mahomes (KC): +0.149 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • LV defense: +0.104 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (30th in the league)
  • Wind 19 mph

Predicted Final Score

LV 21
–
KC 24
Projected margin: KC by 3 Projected total: 45

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 14

LV

Carl Nassib DE Out Knee
Patrick Onwuasor LB Out Hamstring
Darren Waller TE Out Knee
Denzel Perryman LB Doubtful Ankle

KC

Chris Lammons CB Out Ankle
L'Jarius Sneed CB Questionable Not injury related - personal matter
Rashad Fenton CB Questionable Knee
Lucas Niang T Questionable Ribs

Pulled fresh for 2021 week 14 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

LV 9
–
KC 48

Prediction missed by 36 pts on margin, 12 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 14:52 TD KC (14:52) 28-J.Jacobs left end to LV 22 for -3 yards (90-J.Reed). FUMBLES (90-J.Reed), RECOVERED by KC-21-M.Hughes at LV 23. 21-M.Hughes for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LV 0 – KC 6
  • Q1 03:49 TD KC (3:49) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short left to 31-Da.Williams for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LV 0 – KC 13
  • Q2 12:20 TD KC (12:20) 25-C.Edwards-Helaire left end for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LV 0 – KC 20
  • Q2 06:19 TD KC (6:19) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 19-J.Gordon for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. LV 0 – KC 27
  • Q2 01:45 TD KC (1:45) (Shotgun) 25-C.Edwards-Helaire left guard for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LV 0 – KC 34
  • Q2 00:03 FG LV (:03) 2-D.Carlson 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole. LV 3 – KC 35
  • Q3 08:30 FG KC (8:30) 7-H.Butker 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend. LV 3 – KC 38
  • Q3 03:34 TD LV (3:34) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short right to 13-H.Renfrow for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LV 9 – KC 38
  • Q4 09:57 FG KC (9:57) 7-H.Butker 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend. LV 9 – KC 41
  • Q4 07:28 TD KC (7:28) 40-D.Gore up the middle for 51 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LV 9 – KC 47

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 LV 4th & 9 at the 76
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (12:03) 6-A.Cole punts 44 yards to KC 32, Center-47-T.Sieg, out of bounds.

  • Q1 KC 4th & 7 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (10:50) 5-T.Townsend punts 52 yards to LV 13, Center-41-J.Winchester. 13-H.Renfrow to LV 19 for 6 yards (44-D.O'Daniel).

  • Q1 LV 4th & 10 at the 60
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (6:10) 6-A.Cole punts 60 yards to end zone, Center-47-T.Sieg, Touchback.

  • Q1 LV 4th & 4 at the 55
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.55 EP
    p(convert) 48%

    (1:47) 6-A.Cole punts 46 yards to KC 9, Center-47-T.Sieg. 17-M.Hardman to KC 20 for 11 yards (5-D.Deablo).

  • Q2 LV 4th & 1 at the 66
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 72%

    (:57) (Punt formation) Direct snap to 32-D.Leavitt. 32-D.Leavitt up the middle to LV 38 for 4 yards (44-D.O'Daniel; 20-J.Jackson).

  • Q3 KC 4th & 18 at the 36
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24% p(FG) 56%

    (8:30) 7-H.Butker 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend.

  • Q4 KC 4th & 1 at the 19
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.37 EP
    p(convert) 67% p(FG) 90%

    (9:57) 7-H.Butker 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend.