4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 1 at the 19

Kansas City Chiefs 38 – Las Vegas Raiders 9

What Actually Happened

(9:57) 7-H.Butker 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend.

The Three Options

GO +2.93 EP
Model's Pick
  • 67% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 18, worth +4.75 EP
  • 33% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 19, worth -0.84 EP
KICK +1.56 EP
What Happened
  • 90% chance to make a 36-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.88 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 29, worth -1.35 EP
PUNT -0.32 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.37 EP