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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 7 at the 65

Kansas City Chiefs 7 – Las Vegas Raiders 0

What Actually Happened

(10:50) 5-T.Townsend punts 52 yards to LV 13, Center-41-J.Winchester. 13-H.Renfrow to LV 19 for 6 yards (44-D.O'Daniel).

The Three Options

GO -1.04 EP
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +2.56 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 65, worth -3.56 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

PUNT -0.44 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 23, worth -0.44 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model