Win Probability
Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Key Insights
- CLE offense: +0.057 EPA/play over its last 8 games (15th in the league)
- NE defense: -0.109 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
- NE offense: -0.044 EPA/play over its last 8 games (25th in the league)
- Baker Mayfield (CLE): +0.117 EPA/dropback in prior starts
Predicted Final Score
Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Injury Report — Week 10
CLE
NE
Pulled fresh for 2021 week 10 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 36 pts on margin, 8 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 10:09 TD CLE (10:09) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short left to 81-A.Hooper for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 6 – NE 0
- Q1 00:31 TD NE (:31) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass short right to 85-H.Henry for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 7 – NE 6
- Q2 14:48 TD NE (14:48) 38-R.Stevenson left end for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 7 – NE 13
- Q2 05:46 TD NE (5:46) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass deep middle to 84-K.Bourne for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 7 – NE 20
- Q2 00:20 FG NE (:20) 6-N.Folk 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey. CLE 7 – NE 24
- Q3 05:08 TD NE (5:08) 71-M.Onwenu reported in as eligible. 38-R.Stevenson right guard for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 7 – NE 30
- Q4 13:37 TD NE (13:37) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass short middle to 85-H.Henry for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 7 – NE 37
- Q4 04:20 TD NE (4:20) (Shotgun) 5-B.Hoyer pass short right to 16-J.Meyers for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE-23-T.Hill was injured during the play. NE 16-Meyers 1st NFL TD. CLE 7 – NE 44
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q1 CLE 4th & 2 at the 2Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 53% p(FG) 99%
(10:09) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short left to 81-A.Hooper for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
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Q2 CLE 4th & 4 at the 60Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.30 EPp(convert) 49%
(12:05) 7-J.Gillan punts 58 yards to NE 2, Center-47-C.Hughlett, out of bounds. PENALTY on NE-33-J.Williams, Offensive Holding, 1 yard, enforced at NE 2.
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Q2 CLE 4th & 15 at the 72Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 29%
(3:57) 7-J.Gillan punts 39 yards to NE 33, Center-47-C.Hughlett, fair catch by 16-J.Meyers.
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Q2 NE 4th & 14 at the 20Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 24% p(FG) 91%
(:20) 6-N.Folk 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey.
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Q3 NE 4th & 17 at the 80Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 28%
(13:46) 7-J.Bailey punts 66 yards to CLE 14, Center-49-J.Cardona, downed by NE-29-J.Bethel.
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Q3 CLE 4th & 5 at the 67Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 46%
(10:26) 7-J.Gillan punts 59 yards to NE 8, Center-47-C.Hughlett, downed by CLE-19-J.Natson.
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Q3 CLE 4th & 19 at the 49Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.80 EPp(convert) 24% p(FG) 31%
(1:37) (Shotgun) 5-C.Keenum sacked at CLE 47 for -4 yards (53-K.Van Noy). Penalty on CLE-62-B.Hance, Offensive Holding, declined.
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Q4 CLE 4th & 7 at the 50Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 38% p(FG) 29%
(11:27) (Shotgun) 5-C.Keenum pass short left to 11-D.Peoples-Jones to NE 34 for 16 yards (2-J.Mills).
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Q4 CLE 4th & 12 at the 12Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.40 EPp(convert) 26% p(FG) 96%
(8:21) (Shotgun) 5-C.Keenum pass short right to 80-J.Landry to NE 5 for 7 yards (23-K.Dugger).
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Q4 CLE 4th & 13 at the 53 late-gameChose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 29% p(FG) 23%
(1:09) 7-J.Gillan punts 33 yards to NE 20, Center-47-C.Hughlett, out of bounds.