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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cleveland Browns 4th & 4 at the 60

Cleveland Browns 7 – New England Patriots 14

What Actually Happened

(12:05) 7-J.Gillan punts 58 yards to NE 2, Center-47-C.Hughlett, out of bounds. PENALTY on NE-33-J.Williams, Offensive Holding, 1 yard, enforced at NE 2.

The Three Options

GO -0.74 EP
Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +2.14 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 60, worth -3.47 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT -1.04 EP
What Happened
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 19, worth -1.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.30 EP