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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cleveland Browns 4th & 19 at the 49

Cleveland Browns 7 – New England Patriots 31

What Actually Happened

(1:37) (Shotgun) 5-C.Keenum sacked at CLE 47 for -4 yards (53-K.Van Noy). Penalty on CLE-62-B.Hance, Offensive Holding, declined.

The Three Options

GO -1.21 EP
What Happened
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +3.89 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 49, worth -2.79 EP
KICK -1.36 EP
  • 31% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.84 EP
  • 69% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 49, worth -2.81 EP
PUNT -0.42 EP
Model's Pick
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 14, worth -0.42 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.80 EP