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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cleveland Browns 4th & 7 at the 50

Cleveland Browns 7 – New England Patriots 38

What Actually Happened

(11:27) (Shotgun) 5-C.Keenum pass short left to 11-D.Peoples-Jones to NE 34 for 16 yards (2-J.Mills).

The Three Options

GO -0.45 EP
What Happened
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +3.00 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 50, worth -2.57 EP
KICK -1.27 EP
  • 29% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.94 EP
  • 71% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 49, worth -2.57 EP
PUNT -0.42 EP
Model's Pick
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 14, worth -0.42 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model