HOU @ CLE — 4th & Data

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HC David Culley

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HC Kevin Stefanski

Sunday 2021-09-19 · 13:00 FirstEnergy Stadium, Cleveland US ☀️ Clear Spread 13.5 O/U 48.5

Win Probability

HOU

56.8%

CLE

43.2%

☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

CLE defense: +0.329 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (31st in the league)
CLE offense: +0.244 EPA/play over its last 8 games (6th in the league)
HOU offense: +0.141 EPA/play over its last 8 games (10th in the league)
Baker Mayfield (CLE) has only 1 prior start in the data — thin sample
QB edge to CLE: Baker Mayfield (CLE) +0.359 vs Tyrod Taylor (HOU) +0.413 EPA/dropback

Predicted Final Score

HOU 24

–

CLE 23

Projected margin: HOU by 1 Projected total: 47

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 2

HOU

Deshaun Watson QB Out Not injury related - personal matter

Kamu Grugier-Hill LB Questionable Illness

Pharaoh Brown TE Questionable Ankle

CLE

Christopher Hubbard T Out Triceps

Odell Beckham WR Out Knee

Jedrick Wills T Questionable Ankle

Troy Hill CB Questionable Hamstring

Michael Dunn G Questionable Back

Anthony Schwartz WR Questionable Knee

J.C. Tretter C Questionable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2021 week 2 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

HOU 21

–

CLE 31

Prediction missed by 11 pts on margin, 5 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

Q1 10:00 TD CLE (10:00) 31-A.Janovich up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 0 – CLE 6
Q1 05:27 TD HOU (5:27) 5-Ty.Taylor pass short right to 30-P.Lindsay for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 6 – CLE 7
Q2 07:14 TD HOU (7:14) (Shotgun) 5-Ty.Taylor scrambles right end for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 13 – CLE 7
Q2 01:20 TD CLE (1:20) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield scrambles up the middle for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 14 – CLE 13
Q3 07:59 TD CLE (7:59) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short left to 25-D.Felton for 33 yards, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 14 – CLE 20
Q3 04:43 FG CLE (4:43) 3-C.McLaughlin 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-7-J.Gillan. HOU 14 – CLE 24
Q4 11:34 TD HOU (11:34) 10-D.Mills pass short right to 13-B.Cooks for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 20 – CLE 24
Q4 05:59 TD CLE (5:59) 24-N.Chubb right guard for 26 yards, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 21 – CLE 30

Fourth-Down Decisions

Q2 HOU 4th & 2 at the 49

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.27 EP

p(convert) 65% p(FG) 26%

(14:01) 11-C.Johnston punts 49 yards to end zone, Center-46-J.Weeks, Touchback.
Q2 HOU 4th & 12 at the 65

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 38%

(:09) 11-C.Johnston punts 54 yards to CLE 11, Center-46-J.Weeks. 25-D.Felton MUFFS catch, and recovers at CLE 11.
Q3 HOU 4th & 6 at the 71

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.36 EP

p(convert) 50%

(13:52) 11-C.Johnston punts 50 yards to CLE 21, Center-46-J.Weeks. 25-D.Felton to CLE 28 for 7 yards (43-N.Hewitt; 48-J.Thomas).
Q3 CLE 4th & 4 at the 12

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.47 EP

p(convert) 47% p(FG) 96%

(4:43) 3-C.McLaughlin 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-7-J.Gillan.
Q4 HOU 4th & 10 at the 78

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 42%

(5:31) 11-C.Johnston punts 56 yards to CLE 22, Center-46-J.Weeks. 25-D.Felton pushed ob at CLE 37 for 15 yards (8-T.Brooks).
Q4 CLE 4th & 2 at the 55 late-game

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.84 EP

p(convert) 64%

(3:40) 7-J.Gillan punts 43 yards to HOU 12, Center-47-C.Hughlett, out of bounds.
Q4 HOU 4th & 12 at the 23 late-game

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 33% p(FG) 87%

(2:03) 16-J.Slye 41 yard field goal is BLOCKED (36-M.Stewart), Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-11-C.Johnston.