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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Houston Texans 4th & 10 at the 78

Houston Texans 21 – Cleveland Browns 31

What Actually Happened

(5:31) 11-C.Johnston punts 56 yards to CLE 22, Center-46-J.Weeks. 25-D.Felton pushed ob at CLE 37 for 15 yards (8-T.Brooks).

The Three Options

GO -2.01 EP
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 68, worth +1.17 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 78, worth -4.34 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

PUNT -1.47 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 35, worth -1.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model