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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 12 at the 65

Houston Texans 14 – Cleveland Browns 14

What Actually Happened

(:09) 11-C.Johnston punts 54 yards to CLE 11, Center-46-J.Weeks. 25-D.Felton MUFFS catch, and recovers at CLE 11.

The Three Options

GO -1.23 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +0.49 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 65, worth -2.28 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

PUNT -0.04 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 23, worth -0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model