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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Houston Texans 4th & 12 at the 23

Houston Texans 21 – Cleveland Browns 31

What Actually Happened

(2:03) 16-J.Slye 41 yard field goal is BLOCKED (36-M.Stewart), Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-11-C.Johnston.

The Three Options

GO +1.25 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 11, worth +4.61 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 23, worth -0.38 EP
KICK +2.13 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 87% chance to make a 40-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.54 EP
  • 13% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 33, worth -0.52 EP
PUNT -0.21 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth -0.21 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model