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Seattle Seahawks

HC Pete Carroll
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Indianapolis Colts

HC Frank Reich
Sunday 2021-09-12 · 13:00 Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis US 🏟 Dome Spread -3.0 O/U 49.0

Win Probability

SEA
45.9%
IND
54.1%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • QB edge to SEA: Carson Wentz (IND) -0.060 vs Russell Wilson (SEA) -0.054 EPA/dropback

Predicted Final Score

SEA 23
–
IND 24
Projected margin: IND by 1 Projected total: 47

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 1

SEA

No players on the report.

IND

Xavier Rhodes CB Out Calf
Kemoko Turay DE Out Groin
Eric Fisher T Out Achilles
Quenton Nelson G Questionable Foot
Danny Pinter G Questionable Foot

Pulled fresh for 2021 week 1 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

SEA 28
–
IND 16

Prediction missed by 13 pts on margin, 3 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 05:44 FG IND (5:44) 3-R.Blankenship 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez. SEA 0 – IND 3
  • Q1 01:31 TD SEA (1:31) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass deep middle to 16-T.Lockett for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 6 – IND 3
  • Q2 11:27 TD SEA (11:27) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short middle to 81-G.Everett for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN [90-G.Stewart]. PENALTY on SEA-14-D.Metcalf, Taunting, 15 yards, enforced between downs. SEA 13 – IND 3
  • Q2 07:08 TD IND (7:08) (Shotgun) 2-C.Wentz pass short middle to 14-Z.Pascal for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 14 – IND 9
  • Q2 00:51 TD SEA (:51) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass deep middle to 16-T.Lockett for 69 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 20 – IND 10
  • Q4 06:45 TD SEA (6:45) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short middle to 14-D.Metcalf for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 27 – IND 10
  • Q4 02:12 TD IND (2:12) (Shotgun) 2-C.Wentz pass short middle to 14-Z.Pascal for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 28 – IND 16

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 IND 4th & 3 at the 3
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.86 EP
    p(convert) 46% p(FG) 98%

    (5:44) 3-R.Blankenship 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

  • Q2 IND 4th & 14 at the 79
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (15:00) 8-R.Sanchez punts 46 yards to SEA 33, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 18-F.Swain pushed ob at SEA 39 for 6 yards (16-A.Dulin).

  • Q2 SEA 4th & 4 at the 53
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48% p(FG) 27%

    (5:18) 4-M.Dickson punts 25 yards to IND 28, Center-69-T.Ott, out of bounds. PENALTY on SEA-52-D.Taylor, Ineligible Downfield Kick, 5 yards, enforced at IND 28.

  • Q2 IND 4th & 7 at the 64
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (3:07) 8-R.Sanchez punts 47 yards to SEA 17, Center-46-L.Rhodes, fair catch by 18-F.Swain.

  • Q2 IND 4th & 1 at the 72
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.60 EP
    p(convert) 72%

    (:04) (Shotgun) 2-C.Wentz pass incomplete deep right.

  • Q3 SEA 4th & 5 at the 54
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.40 EP
    p(convert) 44%

    (12:31) 4-M.Dickson punts 49 yards to IND 5, Center-69-T.Ott. 21-N.Hines to IND 12 for 7 yards (59-J.Rhattigan, 25-T.Homer).

  • Q3 IND 4th & 3 at the 81
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.45 EP
    p(convert) 56%

    (11:17) 8-R.Sanchez punts 52 yards to SEA 29, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 18-F.Swain pushed ob at SEA 38 for 9 yards (16-A.Dulin).

  • Q3 SEA 4th & 13 at the 55
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (8:06) 4-M.Dickson punts 40 yards to IND 15, Center-69-T.Ott, downed by SEA-52-D.Taylor.

  • Q3 IND 4th & 18 at the 93
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (6:23) 8-R.Sanchez punts 42 yards to IND 49, Center-46-L.Rhodes, fair catch by 18-F.Swain.

  • Q3 IND 4th & 1 at the 31
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 68% p(FG) 78%

    (3:36) (No Huddle) 2-C.Wentz FUMBLES (Aborted) at SEA 31, RECOVERED by SEA-2-D.Reed at SEA 31.

  • Q3 SEA 4th & 4 at the 50
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.55 EP
    p(convert) 48% p(FG) 34%

    (1:29) 4-M.Dickson punts 36 yards to IND 14, Center-69-T.Ott, fair catch by 21-N.Hines.

  • Q4 IND 4th & 2 at the 18
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 55% p(FG) 93%

    (10:00) (Shotgun) 2-C.Wentz sacked at SEA 27 for -9 yards (52-D.Taylor).

  • Q4 SEA 4th & 10 at the 45 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.51 EP
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 46%

    (1:48) 4-M.Dickson punts 35 yards to IND 10, Center-69-T.Ott, downed by SEA-26-R.Neal.