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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 5 at the 54

Seattle Seahawks 21 – Indianapolis Colts 10

What Actually Happened

(12:31) 4-M.Dickson punts 49 yards to IND 5, Center-69-T.Ott. 21-N.Hines to IND 12 for 7 yards (59-J.Rhattigan, 25-T.Homer).

The Three Options

GO -0.49 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.79 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 54, worth -3.11 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -0.90 EP
What Happened
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 16, worth -0.90 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.40 EP