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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 18 at the 93

Indianapolis Colts 10 – Seattle Seahawks 21

What Actually Happened

(6:23) 8-R.Sanchez punts 42 yards to IND 49, Center-46-L.Rhodes, fair catch by 18-F.Swain.

The Three Options

GO -3.51 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 75, worth +1.25 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 93, worth -5.46 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (110 yards).

PUNT -2.39 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 51, worth -2.39 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model