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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 13 at the 55

Seattle Seahawks 21 – Indianapolis Colts 10

What Actually Happened

(8:06) 4-M.Dickson punts 40 yards to IND 15, Center-69-T.Ott, downed by SEA-52-D.Taylor.

The Three Options

GO -1.23 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +3.10 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 55, worth -3.05 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.83 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 16, worth -0.83 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model