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Green Bay Packers

13-3 HC Matt LaFleur
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San Francisco 49ers

13-3 HC Kyle Shanahan
Sunday 2020-01-19 · 18:40 ET Levi's Stadium, Santa Clara US ☀️ Clear Spread 8.0 O/U 46.5

Win Probability

GB
32.9%
SF
67.1%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: clear edge Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.

Key Insights

  • SF offense: +0.112 EPA/play over its last 8 games (5th in the league)
  • SF defense: -0.026 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (16th in the league)
  • GB offense: +0.036 EPA/play over its last 8 games (9th in the league)
  • Aaron Rodgers (GB): +0.111 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • GB defense: -0.044 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (11th in the league)

New to these stats? NFL 101 Glossary →

Predicted Final Score

GB 24 17–31
–
SF 26 19–33
Projected margin: SF by 2 Projected total: 50

The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.

Injury Report — Week 20

GB

J.K. Scott P Questionable Illness
Dan Vitale RB Questionable Knee

SF

No players on the report.

Pulled fresh for 2019 week 20 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

GB 20
–
SF 37

Prediction missed by 15 pts on margin, 7 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 06:01 TD SF (6:01) (Shotgun) 31-R.Mostert left tackle for 36 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 0 – SF 6
  • Q2 15:00 FG SF (15:00) 9-R.Gould 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-6-M.Wishnowsky. GB 0 – SF 10
  • Q2 09:17 TD SF (9:17) (Shotgun) 31-R.Mostert left end for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 0 – SF 16
  • Q2 02:00 FG SF (2:00) 9-R.Gould 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-6-M.Wishnowsky. GB 0 – SF 20
  • Q2 00:50 TD SF (:50) 31-R.Mostert up the middle for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 0 – SF 26
  • Q3 08:49 TD GB (8:49) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short right to 33-A.Jones for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught at SF 13. 13-yac GB 6 – SF 27
  • Q3 04:56 TD SF (4:56) 31-R.Mostert left end for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 7 – SF 33
  • Q4 14:45 TD GB (14:45) 33-A.Jones up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. GB 13 – SF 34
  • Q4 08:21 TD GB (8:21) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short right to 87-J.Sternberger for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 19 – SF 34
  • Q4 03:36 FG SF (3:36) 9-R.Gould 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-6-M.Wishnowsky. GB 20 – SF 37

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 SF 4th & 1 at the 66
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.23 EP
    p(convert) 73%

    (13:13) 6-M.Wishnowsky punts 41 yards to GB 25, Center-86-K.Nelson, fair catch by 32-T.Ervin.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 GB 4th & 1 at the 50
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.58 EP
    p(convert) 70% p(FG) 28%

    (9:40) 6-J.Scott punts 39 yards to SF 11, Center-43-H.Bradley, fair catch by 13-R.James Jr..

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 GB 4th & 20 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25%

    (2:31) 6-J.Scott punts 48 yards to SF 23, Center-43-H.Bradley. 13-R.James Jr. ran ob at SF 49 for 26 yards (37-J.Jackson).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 SF 4th & 14 at the 36
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 64%

    (15:00) 9-R.Gould 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-6-M.Wishnowsky.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 SF 4th & 2 at the 9
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.05 EP
    p(convert) 55% p(FG) 97%

    (2:00) 9-R.Gould 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-6-M.Wishnowsky.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 GB 4th & 9 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (:14) 6-J.Scott punts 62 yards to SF 12, Center-43-H.Bradley, downed by GB-25-W.Redmond.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 GB 4th & 2 at the 47
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 59% p(FG) 35%

    (:05) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short middle to 13-A.Lazard to SF 43 for 4 yards (24-K.Williams). SF-24-K.Williams was injured during the play. Caught at SF 43. 0-yac

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 SF 4th & 6 at the 44
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.49 EP
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 43%

    (11:32) 6-M.Wishnowsky punts 36 yards to GB 8, Center-86-K.Nelson, fair catch by 32-T.Ervin.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 SF 4th & 3 at the 24 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50% p(FG) 86%

    (3:36) 9-R.Gould 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-6-M.Wishnowsky.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 GB 4th & 13 at the 78 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (2:08) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass deep left to 17-D.Adams to GB 38 for 16 yards (24-K.Williams). Caught at GB 38. 0-yac

    See the full breakdown →