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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 2 at the 9

San Francisco 49ers 17 – Green Bay Packers 0

What Actually Happened

(2:00) 9-R.Gould 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-6-M.Wishnowsky.

The Three Options

GO +2.91 EP
Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 7, worth +5.48 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 9, worth -0.24 EP
KICK +1.85 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 26-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.94 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.87 EP
PUNT -0.36 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.05 EP