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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 6 at the 44

San Francisco 49ers 34 – Green Bay Packers 13

What Actually Happened

(11:32) 6-M.Wishnowsky punts 36 yards to GB 8, Center-86-K.Nelson, fair catch by 32-T.Ervin.

The Three Options

GO +0.08 EP
Model's Pick
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.37 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 44, worth -2.22 EP
KICK -0.73 EP
  • 43% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.88 EP
  • 57% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.68 EP
PUNT -0.41 EP
What Happened
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 12, worth -0.41 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.49 EP