Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Green Bay Packers 4th & 13 at the 78

Green Bay Packers 20 – San Francisco 49ers 37

(2:08) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass deep left to 17-D.Adams to GB 38 for 16 yards (24-K.Williams). Caught at GB 38. 0-yac

The Three Options

GO -0.75 EP

What Happened

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +2.14 EP
68% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 78, worth -2.11 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

Chose GO ✓ matched the model