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Cleveland Browns

HC Freddie Kitchens
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NE Home

New England Patriots

HC Bill Belichick
Sunday 2019-10-27 · 16:25 Gillette Stadium, Foxborough US 🌧 Rain Spread 9.5 O/U 43.0

Win Probability

CLE
17.9%
NE
82.1%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • NE defense: -0.472 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
  • CLE offense: -0.076 EPA/play over its last 8 games (24th in the league)
  • CLE on 8 more days rest than NE
  • Tom Brady (NE): +0.144 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • NE offense: +0.030 EPA/play over its last 8 games (11th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

CLE 15
–
NE 28
Projected margin: NE by 13 Projected total: 43

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 8

CLE

Damarious Randall S Out Hamstring
Sheldrick Redwine S Questionable Hamstring
Kendall Lamm T Questionable Knee

NE

Ryan Izzo TE Out Concussion
Matt LaCosse TE Out Knee
Rex Burkhead RB Questionable Foot
Patrick Chung S Questionable Head
Julian Edelman WR Questionable Chest
Shaquille Mason G Questionable Ankle
Gunner Olszewski WR Questionable Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2019 week 8 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

CLE 13
–
NE 27

Prediction missed by 1 pts on margin, 3 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 06:38 FG NE (6:38) 2-M.Nugent 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey. CLE 0 – NE 3
  • Q1 05:55 TD NE (5:55) (Shotgun) 24-N.Chubb right guard to CLE 22 for -1 yards. FUMBLES, RECOVERED by NE-54-D.Hightower at CLE 26. 54-D.Hightower for 26 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 0 – NE 9
  • Q1 01:53 TD NE (1:53) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short middle to 11-J.Edelman for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 12-Brady 12th TD pass of season, most single-season passing TD by a player age 42 or older (Moon, 11-1998). CLE 0 – NE 16
  • Q2 07:50 TD CLE (7:50) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep left to 88-D.Harris for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 6 – NE 17
  • Q3 08:41 FG CLE (8:41) 4-A.Seibert 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-7-J.Gillan. CLE 10 – NE 17
  • Q3 06:20 TD NE (6:20) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short right to 11-J.Edelman for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 10 – NE 23
  • Q4 07:46 FG NE (7:46) 2-M.Nugent 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey. CLE 10 – NE 27
  • Q4 02:38 FG CLE (2:38) 4-A.Seibert 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-7-J.Gillan. CLE 13 – NE 27

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 NE 4th & 9 at the 58
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (13:36) 7-J.Bailey punts 38 yards to CLE 20, Center-49-J.Cardona, out of bounds.

  • Q1 CLE 4th & 3 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48%

    (12:36) 7-J.Gillan punts 46 yards to NE 27, Center-47-C.Hughlett, fair catch by 80-G.Olszewski.

  • Q1 NE 4th & 7 at the 33
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 67%

    (9:12) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short left to 11-J.Edelman to CLE 23 for 10 yards (51-M.Wilson, 53-J.Schobert).

  • Q1 NE 4th & 2 at the 2
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.40 EP
    p(convert) 54% p(FG) 98%

    (6:38) 2-M.Nugent 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey.

  • Q1 NE 4th & 9 at the 84
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (2:48) 7-J.Bailey punts 55 yards to CLE 29, Center-49-J.Cardona. 25-D.Hilliard to CLE 31 for 2 yards (18-M.Slater, 49-J.Cardona). PENALTY on CLE-57-A.Taylor, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at CLE 31.

  • Q2 CLE 4th & 16 at the 46
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 20% p(FG) 33%

    (13:05) 7-J.Gillan punts 33 yards to NE 13, Center-47-C.Hughlett, downed by CLE-44-S.Takitaki.

  • Q2 NE 4th & 10 at the 87
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (11:22) 7-J.Bailey punts 42 yards to CLE 45, Center-49-J.Cardona. 25-D.Hilliard MUFFS catch, recovered by CLE-20-T.Thomas at CLE 46. 20-T.Thomas to CLE 46 for no gain (43-N.Ebner).

  • Q2 NE 4th & 4 at the 24
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45% p(FG) 85%

    (4:16) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short right to 14-M.Sanu to CLE 20 for 4 yards (35-J.Whitehead). Cleveland challenged the first down ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #2.)

  • Q2 NE 4th & 6 at the 11
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.31 EP
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 96%

    (2:25) 2-M.Nugent 29 yard field goal is BLOCKED (21-D.Ward), Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey, recovered by NE-58-J.Collins at CLE 16. 58-J.Collins to CLE 16 for no gain (51-M.Wilson).

  • Q3 CLE 4th & 13 at the 20
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 21% p(FG) 90%

    (8:41) 4-A.Seibert 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-7-J.Gillan.

  • Q3 CLE 4th & 10 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (5:12) 7-J.Gillan punts 56 yards to NE 19, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 80-G.Olszewski to NE 27 for 8 yards (12-K.Hodge, 22-E.Murray).

  • Q3 NE 4th & 12 at the 64
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (2:23) 7-J.Bailey punts 51 yards to CLE 13, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 25-D.Hilliard.

  • Q4 CLE 4th & 13 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25%

    (13:21) 7-J.Gillan punts 43 yards to NE 27, Center-47-C.Hughlett, downed by CLE-88-D.Harris.

  • Q4 NE 4th & 9 at the 11
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 96%

    (7:46) 2-M.Nugent 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey.

  • Q4 CLE 4th & 16 at the 81
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +1.29 EP
    p(convert) 24%

    (6:17) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield sacked at CLE 14 for -5 yards (sack split by 50-C.Winovich and 70-A.Butler).

  • Q4 NE 4th & 12 at the 16 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 93%

    (4:12) 2-M.Nugent 34 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey.

  • Q4 CLE 4th & 6 at the 29 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 76%

    (2:38) 4-A.Seibert 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-7-J.Gillan.

  • Q4 NE 4th & 5 at the 41 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.49 EP
    p(convert) 43% p(FG) 46%

    (1:12) 7-J.Bailey punts 41 yards to end zone, Center-49-J.Cardona, Touchback.