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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New England Patriots 4th & 4 at the 24

New England Patriots 17 – Cleveland Browns 7

What Actually Happened

(4:16) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short right to 14-M.Sanu to CLE 20 for 4 yards (35-J.Whitehead). Cleveland challenged the first down ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #2.)

The Three Options

GO +1.64 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 20, worth +4.61 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 24, worth -0.76 EP
KICK +1.41 EP
  • 85% chance to make a 41-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.95 EP
  • 15% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 34, worth -1.61 EP
PUNT -0.14 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth -0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model