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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New England Patriots 4th & 2 at the 2

New England Patriots 0 – Cleveland Browns 0

What Actually Happened

(6:38) 2-M.Nugent 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey.

The Three Options

GO +4.22 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.81 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 2, worth +1.25 EP
KICK +2.83 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 19-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.87 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 21, worth +0.13 EP
PUNT +0.81 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth +0.81 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.40 EP