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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New England Patriots 4th & 6 at the 11

New England Patriots 17 – Cleveland Browns 7

What Actually Happened

(2:25) 2-M.Nugent 29 yard field goal is BLOCKED (21-D.Ward), Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey, recovered by NE-58-J.Collins at CLE 16. 58-J.Collins to CLE 16 for no gain (51-M.Wilson).

The Three Options

GO +1.92 EP
Model's Pick
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 5, worth +5.86 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 11, worth -0.34 EP
KICK +1.61 EP
What Happened
  • 96% chance to make a 28-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.72 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 22, worth -0.88 EP
PUNT -0.34 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth -0.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.31 EP