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JAX Away

Jacksonville Jaguars

HC Doug Marrone
@
CAR Home

Carolina Panthers

HC Ron Rivera
Sunday 2019-10-06 · 13:00 Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte US 🌧 Rain Spread 3.0 O/U 41.0

Win Probability

JAX
29.7%
CAR
70.3%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • JAX offense: -0.151 EPA/play over its last 8 games (28th in the league)
  • Kyle Allen (CAR): +0.185 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • CAR offense: -0.048 EPA/play over its last 8 games (24th in the league)
  • CAR defense: -0.034 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (8th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

JAX 19
–
CAR 26
Projected margin: CAR by 7 Projected total: 45

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 5

JAX

Jalen Ramsey CB Out Back
Josh Oliver TE Out Hamstring
D.J. Hayden CB Questionable Foot
Lerentee McCray DE Questionable Oblique

CAR

Chris Hogan WR Out Knee
Donte Jackson CB Out Groin
Greg Little T Out Concussion
Chris Manhertz TE Out Concussion
Cam Newton QB Out Foot
Trai Turner G Out Ankle
Gerald McCoy DT Questionable Knee
Brian Burns LB Questionable Wrist
Eric Reid S Questionable Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2019 week 5 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

JAX 27
–
CAR 34

Prediction missed by 0 pts on margin, 16 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 09:29 TD CAR (9:29) (Shotgun) 22-C.McCaffrey right end for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 0 – CAR 6
  • Q1 07:34 TD JAX (7:34) 15-G.Minshew pass deep left to 17-D.Chark for 37 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 6 – CAR 7
  • Q1 01:42 TD CAR (1:42) (Shotgun) 7-K.Allen pass short middle to 22-C.McCaffrey for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 7 – CAR 13
  • Q2 13:43 TD CAR (13:43) (Shotgun) 15-G.Minshew sacked at CAR 41 for -7 yards (97-M.Addison). FUMBLES (97-M.Addison), RECOVERED by CAR-53-B.Burns at CAR 44. 53-B.Burns for 56 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 7 – CAR 20
  • Q2 06:13 TD JAX (6:13) (Shotgun) 15-G.Minshew pass short left to 17-D.Chark for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on CAR-53-B.Burns, Roughing the Passer, 15 yards, enforced between downs. JAX 13 – CAR 21
  • Q2 01:01 FG JAX (1:01) 4-J.Lambo 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Orzech, Holder-9-L.Cooke. JAX 17 – CAR 21
  • Q3 14:01 TD CAR (14:01) 22-C.McCaffrey left guard for 84 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 17 – CAR 27
  • Q3 10:30 TD JAX (10:30) 27-L.Fournette up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on CAR-55-B.Irvin, Defensive Offside, declined. JAX 23 – CAR 28
  • Q4 05:57 FG JAX (5:57) 4-J.Lambo 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Orzech, Holder-9-L.Cooke. JAX 27 – CAR 28
  • Q4 03:46 TD CAR (3:46) 39-R.Bonnafon up the middle for 59 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 27 – CAR 34

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 CAR 4th & 10 at the 64
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (6:24) 5-M.Palardy punts 54 yards to JAX 10, Center-44-J.Jansen. 12-D.Westbrook pushed ob at JAX 25 for 15 yards (57-A.Smith).

  • Q1 JAX 4th & 9 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (5:09) 9-L.Cooke punts 60 yards to CAR 14, Center-46-M.Orzech, fair catch by 14-R.McCloud.

  • Q1 CAR 4th & 2 at the 78
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.66 EP
    p(convert) 61%

    (3:44) 5-M.Palardy punts 53 yards to JAX 25, Center-44-J.Jansen. 12-D.Westbrook to JAX 30 for 5 yards (42-C.Jones). PENALTY on JAX-42-A.Wingard, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at JAX 30.

  • Q2 JAX 4th & 10 at the 59
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (10:51) 9-L.Cooke punts 38 yards to CAR 21, Center-46-M.Orzech. 14-R.McCloud to CAR 24 for 3 yards (57-D.Alexander). PENALTY on JAX-57-D.Alexander, Face Mask (15 Yards), 15 yards, enforced at CAR 24.

  • Q2 CAR 4th & 6 at the 57
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (9:53) 5-M.Palardy punts 40 yards to JAX 17, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 12-D.Westbrook.

  • Q2 JAX 4th & 2 at the 17
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.41 EP
    p(convert) 51% p(FG) 93%

    (1:01) 4-J.Lambo 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Orzech, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

  • Q2 CAR 4th & 9 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (:44) 5-M.Palardy punts 57 yards to JAX 17, Center-44-J.Jansen. 12-D.Westbrook pushed ob at JAX 14 for -3 yards (20-J.Scarlett).

  • Q3 JAX 4th & 3 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 51%

    (14:10) 9-L.Cooke punts 52 yards to CAR 16, Center-46-M.Orzech, fair catch by 14-R.McCloud.

  • Q3 CAR 4th & 8 at the 28
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 81%

    (6:55) 4-J.Slye 46 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-5-M.Palardy.

  • Q3 JAX 4th & 6 at the 49
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 31%

    (3:09) 9-L.Cooke punts 43 yards to CAR 6, Center-46-M.Orzech, downed by JAX-31-B.Borders.

  • Q4 CAR 4th & 1 at the 5
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 63% p(FG) 98%

    (11:59) 22-C.McCaffrey left tackle to JAX 7 for -2 yards (44-M.Jack; 95-A.Jones).

  • Q4 JAX 4th & 10 at the 20
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 91%

    (5:57) 4-J.Lambo 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Orzech, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

  • Q4 CAR 4th & 12 at the 39 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.79 EP
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 57%

    (1:53) 5-M.Palardy punts 34 yards to JAX 5, Center-44-J.Jansen, out of bounds.