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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 3 at the 68

Jacksonville Jaguars 17 – Carolina Panthers 21

What Actually Happened

(14:10) 9-L.Cooke punts 52 yards to CAR 16, Center-46-M.Orzech, fair catch by 14-R.McCloud.

The Three Options

GO -1.15 EP
Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.63 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 68, worth -4.06 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -1.36 EP
What Happened
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 26, worth -1.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model