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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Carolina Panthers 4th & 8 at the 28

Carolina Panthers 28 – Jacksonville Jaguars 24

What Actually Happened

(6:55) 4-J.Slye 46 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-5-M.Palardy.

The Three Options

GO +0.95 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 20, worth +4.71 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 28, worth -0.84 EP
KICK +1.43 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 81% chance to make a 45-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.22 EP
  • 19% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 38, worth -1.88 EP
PUNT +0.14 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth +0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model