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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Carolina Panthers 4th & 10 at the 64

Carolina Panthers 7 – Jacksonville Jaguars 7

What Actually Happened

(6:24) 5-M.Palardy punts 54 yards to JAX 10, Center-44-J.Jansen. 12-D.Westbrook pushed ob at JAX 25 for 15 yards (57-A.Smith).

The Three Options

GO -1.33 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.86 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 64, worth -3.39 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

PUNT -0.39 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 22, worth -0.39 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model