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Chicago Bears

2-1 HC Matt Nagy
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Washington Commanders

0-3 HC Jay Gruden
Monday 2019-09-23 · 20:15 ET FedExField, Landover US ☀️ Clear Spread -5.0 O/U 41.0

Win Probability

CHI
53.8%
WAS
46.2%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: coin flip Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.

Key Insights

  • WAS offense: -0.127 EPA/play over its last 8 games (29th in the league)
  • WAS defense: +0.096 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (30th in the league)
  • CHI offense: -0.054 EPA/play over its last 8 games (25th in the league)
  • CHI defense: -0.148 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)

New to these stats? NFL 101 Glossary →

Predicted Final Score

CHI 22 15–29
–
WAS 21 14–28
Projected margin: CHI by 1 Projected total: 43

The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.

Injury Report — Week 3

CHI

Bilal Nichols DT Out Hand
Kyle Long G Questionable Hip
Trey Burton TE Questionable Groin
Eddie Jackson S Questionable Shoulder
Eddy Pineiro K Questionable right Knee

WAS

Colt McCoy QB Out Fibula
Cassanova McKinzy LB Out Hip
Jordan Reed TE Out Concussion
Quinton Dunbar CB Questionable Knee
Jonathan Allen DE Questionable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2019 week 3 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

CHI 31
–
WAS 15

Prediction missed by 15 pts on margin, 3 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 09:53 TD CHI (9:53) (Shotgun) 8-C.Keenum pass deep left intended for 18-T.Quinn INTERCEPTED by 21-H.Clinton-Dix at WAS 37. 21-H.Clinton-Dix for 37 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 6 – WAS 0
  • Q2 07:06 TD CHI (7:06) (Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky pass short left to 18-T.Gabriel for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 13 – WAS 0
  • Q2 05:46 TD CHI (5:46) (Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky pass short right to 18-T.Gabriel for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 20 – WAS 0
  • Q2 00:49 TD CHI (:49) (Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky pass incomplete deep right to 18-T.Gabriel. The Replay Official reviewed the incomplete pass ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky pass deep right to 18-T.Gabriel for 36 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 27 – WAS 0
  • Q2 00:05 FG WAS (:05) 3-D.Hopkins 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way. CHI 28 – WAS 3
  • Q3 06:44 TD WAS (6:44) (Shotgun) 8-C.Keenum pass short middle to 17-T.McLaurin for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 28 – WAS 9
  • Q4 13:15 TD WAS (13:15) (Shotgun) 8-C.Keenum pass short left to 10-P.Richardson for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 28 – WAS 15
  • Q4 01:54 FG CHI (1:54) 15-E.Pineiro 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell. CHI 31 – WAS 15

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 WAS 4th & 11 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (6:50) 5-T.Way punts 48 yards to CHI 17, Center-57-N.Sundberg. 29-T.Cohen to CHI 37 for 20 yards (34-W.Smallwood). PENALTY on CHI-33-D.Shelley, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at CHI 20.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 CHI 4th & 9 at the 78
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (3:41) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 45 yards to WAS 33, Center-48-P.Scales. 18-T.Quinn to WAS 42 for 9 yards (26-D.Bush).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 WAS 4th & 20 at the 25
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 18% p(FG) 85%

    (13:26) 3-D.Hopkins 43 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 CHI 4th & 12 at the 26
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 84%

    (10:20) 15-E.Pineiro 44 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 WAS 4th & 2 at the 2
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48% p(FG) 98%

    (13:15) (Shotgun) 8-C.Keenum pass short left to 10-P.Richardson for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 CHI 4th & 4 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50%

    (11:31) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 45 yards to WAS 29, Center-48-P.Scales. 18-T.Quinn to WAS 35 for 6 yards (44-N.Kwiatkoski).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 WAS 4th & 1 at the 56
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 67%

    (10:11) (Shotgun) 8-C.Keenum pass short middle to 17-T.McLaurin to CHI 49 for 7 yards (21-H.Clinton-Dix).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 WAS 4th & 1 at the 16
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 62% p(FG) 94%

    (7:08) 8-C.Keenum up the middle to CHI 15 for 1 yard (59-D.Trevathan). FUMBLES (59-D.Trevathan), touched at CHI 18, RECOVERED by CHI-39-E.Jackson at CHI 19. 39-E.Jackson to CHI 22 for 3 yards (87-J.Sprinkle).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 CHI 4th & 2 at the 20 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 55% p(FG) 90%

    (1:54) 15-E.Pineiro 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.

    See the full breakdown →