Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Washington Commanders 4th & 11 at the 65

Washington Commanders 0 – Chicago Bears 7

What Actually Happened

(6:50) 5-T.Way punts 48 yards to CHI 17, Center-57-N.Sundberg. 29-T.Cohen to CHI 37 for 20 yards (34-W.Smallwood). PENALTY on CHI-33-D.Shelley, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at CHI 20.

The Three Options

GO -1.61 EP

29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.86 EP
71% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 65, worth -3.46 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model