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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Chicago Bears 4th & 12 at the 26

Chicago Bears 28 – Washington Commanders 3

What Actually Happened

(10:20) 15-E.Pineiro 44 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.

The Three Options

GO +0.50 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +4.99 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 26, worth -1.18 EP
KICK +1.18 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 84% chance to make a 43-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.82 EP
  • 16% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 36, worth -2.02 EP
PUNT -0.16 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model