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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Washington Commanders 4th & 20 at the 25

Washington Commanders 0 – Chicago Bears 7

What Actually Happened

(13:26) 3-D.Hopkins 43 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way.

The Three Options

GO +0.45 EP
  • 18% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 5, worth +5.92 EP
  • 82% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 25, worth -0.78 EP
KICK +1.61 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 85% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.20 EP
  • 15% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 35, worth -1.69 EP
PUNT +0.11 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth +0.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model