Win Probability
Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Key Insights
- LV offense: -0.093 EPA/play over its last 8 games (25th in the league)
- LV defense: +0.082 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (26th in the league)
- DEN offense: -0.044 EPA/play over its last 8 games (23rd in the league)
- Derek Carr (LV): -0.024 EPA/dropback in prior starts
Predicted Final Score
Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Injury Report — Week 1
DEN
OAK
Pulled fresh for 2019 week 1 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 10 pts on margin, 0 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 08:56 TD LV (8:56) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short middle to 16-T.Williams for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DEN 0 – OAK 6
- Q2 03:34 TD LV (3:34) 75-B.Parker reported in as eligible. 28-J.Jacobs right guard for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DEN 0 – OAK 13
- Q3 09:22 FG DEN (9:22) 8-B.McManus 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-C.Wadman. DEN 3 – OAK 14
- Q3 03:45 FG DEN (3:45) 8-B.McManus 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-C.Wadman. DEN 6 – OAK 14
- Q4 11:57 TD LV (11:57) 28-J.Jacobs up the middle for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DEN 6 – OAK 20
- Q4 08:43 FG DEN (8:43) 8-B.McManus 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-C.Wadman. DEN 9 – OAK 21
- Q4 04:41 FG LV (4:41) 8-D.Carlson 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole. DEN 9 – OAK 24
- Q4 02:18 TD DEN (2:18) (No Huddle) 5-J.Flacco pass short right to 10-E.Sanders for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. DEN 15 – OAK 24
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q1 DEN 4th & 4 at the 69Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 50%
(6:44) 6-C.Wadman punts 64 yards to LV 5, Center-42-C.Kreiter. 17-D.Harris to LV 14 for 9 yards (81-T.Patrick).
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Q1 LV 4th & 4 at the 52Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 45% p(FG) 18%
(2:37) 6-A.Cole punts 52 yards to end zone, Center-47-T.Sieg, Touchback.
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Q2 DEN 4th & 20 at the 46Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 23% p(FG) 30%
(:05) 8-B.McManus 64 yard field goal is No Good, Short, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-C.Wadman.
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Q3 DEN 4th & 8 at the 8Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 31% p(FG) 97%
(9:22) 8-B.McManus 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-C.Wadman.
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Q3 LV 4th & 1 at the 66Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.71 EPp(convert) 70%
(7:10) 6-A.Cole punts 42 yards to DEN 24, Center-47-T.Sieg, out of bounds.
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Q3 DEN 4th & 5 at the 8Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.56 EPp(convert) 38% p(FG) 97%
(3:45) 8-B.McManus 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-C.Wadman.
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Q3 LV 4th & 3 at the 49Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 50% p(FG) 23%
(1:24) 6-A.Cole punts 40 yards to DEN 9, Center-47-T.Sieg, fair catch by 11-D.Spencer. PENALTY on DEN-41-D.Bausby, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 4 yards, enforced at DEN 9.
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Q4 DEN 4th & 3 at the 88Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 57%
(15:00) 6-C.Wadman punts 48 yards to LV 40, Center-42-C.Kreiter, out of bounds.
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Q4 DEN 4th & 9 at the 21Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 31% p(FG) 88%
(8:43) 8-B.McManus 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-C.Wadman.
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Q4 LV 4th & 3 at the 11 late-gameChose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 45% p(FG) 96%
(4:41) 8-D.Carlson 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole.