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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 4 at the 52

Las Vegas Raiders 7 – Denver Broncos 0

What Actually Happened

(2:37) 6-A.Cole punts 52 yards to end zone, Center-47-T.Sieg, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.04 EP
Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +3.09 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 52, worth -2.63 EP
KICK -1.70 EP
  • 18% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.27 EP
  • 82% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 49, worth -2.55 EP
PUNT -0.26 EP
What Happened
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 15, worth -0.26 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model