4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 3 at the 49

Las Vegas Raiders 14 – Denver Broncos 6

What Actually Happened

(1:24) 6-A.Cole punts 40 yards to DEN 9, Center-47-T.Sieg, fair catch by 11-D.Spencer. PENALTY on DEN-41-D.Bausby, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 4 yards, enforced at DEN 9.

The Three Options

GO +0.21 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +2.86 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 49, worth -2.43 EP
KICK -1.38 EP
  • 23% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.27 EP
  • 77% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 49, worth -2.47 EP
PUNT +0.09 EP
What Happened
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 14, worth +0.09 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model