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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Denver Broncos 4th & 8 at the 8

Denver Broncos 0 – Las Vegas Raiders 14

What Actually Happened

(9:22) 8-B.McManus 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-C.Wadman.

The Three Options

GO +2.01 EP
Model's Pick
  • 31% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.98 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 8, worth +0.22 EP
KICK +1.95 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 25-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.04 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 21, worth -0.65 EP
PUNT +0.15 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth +0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model