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Dallas Cowboys

10-6 HC Jason Garrett
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New York Giants

5-11 HC Pat Shurmur
Sunday 2018-12-30 · 13:00 ET MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford US ☀️ Clear Spread 7.5 O/U 38.5

Win Probability

DAL
41.7%
NYG
58.3%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: slight edge Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.

Key Insights

  • DAL defense: -0.002 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (11th in the league)
  • NYG offense: +0.043 EPA/play over its last 8 games (13th in the league)

New to these stats? NFL 101 Glossary →

Predicted Final Score

DAL 23 16–30
–
NYG 25 18–32
Projected margin: NYG by 2 Projected total: 48

The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.

Injury Report — Week 17

DAL

Tyrone Crawford DE Out Neck
David Irving DE Out Ankle
Anthony Brown CB Questionable Back
Sean Lee LB Questionable Hamstring
Zack Martin G Questionable Knee
Tyron Smith T Questionable Neck

NYG

Odell Beckham WR Out Quadricep
Mario Edwards DE Out Calf
Rhett Ellison TE Out Concussion
Alec Ogletree LB Out Concussion
Russell Shepard WR Out Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2018 week 17 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

DAL 36
–
NYG 35

Prediction missed by 3 pts on margin, 23 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q2 08:17 TD DAL (8:17) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short middle to 89-B.Jarwin for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 6 – NYG 0
  • Q2 01:55 TD DAL (1:55) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass deep middle to 89-B.Jarwin for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 13 – NYG 0
  • Q2 00:22 TD NYG (:22) (Shotgun) 10-E.Manning pass deep left to 12-C.Latimer for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 14 – NYG 6
  • Q3 09:05 FG NYG (9:05) 2-A.Rosas 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Holder-9-R.Dixon. DAL 14 – NYG 10
  • Q3 05:10 TD DAL (5:10) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass deep right to 89-B.Jarwin for 39 yards, TOUCHDOWN [58-T.Davis]. DAL 20 – NYG 10
  • Q3 02:00 TD NYG (2:00) 10-E.Manning pass short right to 88-E.Engram for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 21 – NYG 16
  • Q4 10:43 TD NYG (10:43) 22-W.Gallman right tackle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 21 – NYG 24
  • Q4 09:16 TD DAL (9:16) 45-R.Smith left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 27 – NYG 25
  • Q4 03:27 TD NYG (3:27) (Shotgun) 26-S.Barkley left guard for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 28 – NYG 31
  • Q4 02:39 FG NYG (2:39) 2-A.Rosas 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Holder-9-R.Dixon. DAL 28 – NYG 35
  • Q4 01:19 TD DAL (1:19) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete deep left to 11-C.Beasley. The Replay Official reviewed the incomplete pass ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass deep left to 11-C.Beasley for 32 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 34 – NYG 35

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 DAL 4th & 12 at the 47
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 37%

    (8:17) 6-C.Jones punts 33 yards to NYG 14, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, fair catch by 19-C.Coleman.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 DAL 4th & 11 at the 16
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 94%

    (1:11) 2-B.Maher 34 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 NYG 4th & 14 at the 80
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (14:56) 9-R.Dixon punts 45 yards to DAL 35, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, fair catch by 10-T.Austin.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 NYG 4th & 9 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (7:23) 9-R.Dixon punts 49 yards to DAL 25, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, out of bounds.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 DAL 4th & 16 at the 81
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (13:24) 6-C.Jones punts 45 yards to NYG 36, Center-91-L.Ladouceur. 19-C.Coleman to DAL 45 for 19 yards (49-J.Olawale).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 NYG 4th & 3 at the 38
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 51% p(FG) 60%

    (11:45) (Shotgun) 10-E.Manning pass short left to 18-B.Fowler to DAL 28 for 10 yards (25-X.Woods).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 NYG 4th & 12 at the 30
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 78%

    (9:05) 2-A.Rosas 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 DAL 4th & 2 at the 57
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 60%

    (6:57) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short middle to 11-C.Beasley to NYG 46 for 11 yards (36-S.Chandler).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 DAL 4th & 11 at the 57
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (15:00) 6-C.Jones punts 38 yards to NYG 19, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, fair catch by 19-C.Coleman.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 NYG 4th & 1 at the 65
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 72%

    (7:48) 10-E.Manning up the middle to NYG 37 for 2 yards (94-R.Gregory; 96-M.Collins).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 NYG 4th & 12 at the 20 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 91%

    (2:39) 2-A.Rosas 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 DAL 4th & 15 at the 32 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.16 EP
    p(convert) 25% p(FG) 74%

    (1:19) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete deep left to 11-C.Beasley. The Replay Official reviewed the incomplete pass ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass deep left to 11-C.Beasley for 32 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 NYG 4th & 10 at the 52 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.46 EP
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 26%

    (:51) (Shotgun) 10-E.Manning pass incomplete short middle to 12-C.Latimer (30-A.Brown).

    See the full breakdown →