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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Giants 4th & 12 at the 30

New York Giants 7 – Dallas Cowboys 14

What Actually Happened

(9:05) 2-A.Rosas 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

The Three Options

GO +0.52 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 18, worth +4.95 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 30, worth -1.21 EP
KICK +1.21 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 78% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.13 EP
  • 22% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 40, worth -1.96 EP
PUNT +0.06 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth +0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model