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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 11 at the 16

Dallas Cowboys 0 – New York Giants 0

What Actually Happened

(1:11) 2-B.Maher 34 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones.

The Three Options

GO +0.91 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 5, worth +5.75 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 16, worth -0.91 EP
KICK +1.46 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.66 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 26, worth -1.41 EP
PUNT -0.31 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth -0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model