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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Giants 4th & 1 at the 65

New York Giants 25 – Dallas Cowboys 28

What Actually Happened

(7:48) 10-E.Manning up the middle to NYG 37 for 2 yards (94-R.Gregory; 96-M.Collins).

The Three Options

GO +0.11 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +1.61 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 65, worth -3.69 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

PUNT -1.24 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 23, worth -1.24 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model