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NYG Away

New York Giants

HC Pat Shurmur
@
SF Home

San Francisco 49ers

HC Kyle Shanahan
Monday 2018-11-12 · 20:15 Levi's Stadium, Santa Clara US ☀️ Clear Spread 3.0 O/U 45.0

Win Probability

NYG
21.5%
SF
78.5%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • QB edge to SF: Nick Mullens (SF) +0.846 vs Eli Manning (NYG) -0.071 EPA/dropback
  • NYG offense: -0.056 EPA/play over its last 8 games (24th in the league)
  • NYG on 4 more days rest than SF
  • SF defense: +0.040 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (20th in the league)
  • NYG defense: +0.075 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (25th in the league)
  • Nick Mullens (SF) has only 1 prior start in the data — thin sample

Predicted Final Score

NYG 20
–
SF 28
Projected margin: SF by 8 Projected total: 48

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 10

NYG

No players on the report.

SF

Reuben Foster LB Out Hamstring
Pierre Garcon WR Out Knee
Jaquiski Tartt S Out Shoulder

Pulled fresh for 2018 week 10 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

NYG 27
–
SF 23

Prediction missed by 12 pts on margin, 2 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 10:18 FG SF (10:18) 9-R.Gould 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-5-B.Pinion. NYG 0 – SF 3
  • Q1 02:48 TD NYG (2:48) (Shotgun) 10-E.Manning pass short left to 13-O.Beckham for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 6 – SF 3
  • Q2 13:09 TD SF (13:09) 22-M.Breida up the middle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 7 – SF 9
  • Q2 01:53 FG NYG (1:53) 2-A.Rosas 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Holder-9-R.Dixon. NYG 10 – SF 10
  • Q2 00:07 FG SF (:07) 9-R.Gould 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-5-B.Pinion. NYG 10 – SF 13
  • Q3 08:15 TD SF (8:15) (Shotgun) 4-N.Mullens pass short left to 22-M.Breida for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught at NYG 0. 0-YAC NYG 10 – SF 19
  • Q3 06:40 TD NYG (6:40) (Shotgun) 10-E.Manning pass deep left to 13-O.Beckham for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 16 – SF 20
  • Q3 02:14 FG NYG (2:14) 2-A.Rosas 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Holder-9-R.Dixon. NYG 20 – SF 20
  • Q4 02:50 FG SF (2:50) 9-R.Gould 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-5-B.Pinion. NYG 20 – SF 23
  • Q4 00:57 TD NYG (:57) (Shotgun) 10-E.Manning pass short left to 87-S.Shepard for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 26 – SF 23

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 NYG 4th & 11 at the 76
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (13:45) 9-R.Dixon punts 53 yards to SF 23, Center-51-Z.DeOssie. 13-R.James to SF 46 for 23 yards (9-R.Dixon).

  • Q1 SF 4th & 3 at the 35
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.47 EP
    p(convert) 51% p(FG) 68%

    (10:18) 9-R.Gould 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-5-B.Pinion.

  • Q1 NYG 4th & 7 at the 53
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 26%

    (5:05) 9-R.Dixon punts 45 yards to SF 8, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, downed by NYG-81-R.Shepard.

  • Q2 NYG 4th & 8 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (10:53) 9-R.Dixon punts 59 yards to SF 15, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, downed by NYG-31-M.Thomas.

  • Q2 SF 4th & 3 at the 58
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.77 EP
    p(convert) 54%

    (8:42) 5-B.Pinion punts 40 yards to NYG 18, Center-86-K.Nelson, fair catch by 15-Q.Henderson.

  • Q2 NYG 4th & 2 at the 2
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.03 EP
    p(convert) 52% p(FG) 98%

    (1:53) 2-A.Rosas 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

  • Q3 SF 4th & 19 at the 84
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (4:25) 5-B.Pinion punts 46 yards to NYG 38, Center-86-K.Nelson, downed by SF. PENALTY on SF-33-T.Moore, Kick Catch Interference, 15 yards, enforced at NYG 38.

  • Q3 NYG 4th & 3 at the 13
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.55 EP
    p(convert) 46% p(FG) 95%

    (2:14) 2-A.Rosas 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

  • Q4 NYG 4th & 3 at the 47
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.39 EP
    p(convert) 51% p(FG) 39%

    (13:41) 9-R.Dixon punts 32 yards to SF 15, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, fair catch by 13-R.James.

  • Q4 SF 4th & 1 at the 63
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.44 EP
    p(convert) 72%

    (10:43) 5-B.Pinion punts 47 yards to NYG 16, Center-86-K.Nelson. 15-Q.Henderson to NYG 23 for 7 yards (47-E.Lee).

  • Q4 NYG 4th & 15 at the 82
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (9:06) 9-R.Dixon punts 49 yards to SF 33, Center-51-Z.DeOssie. 18-D.Pettis pushed ob at SF 34 for 1 yard (30-A.Hamilton).

  • Q4 SF 4th & 3 at the 12 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48% p(FG) 96%

    (2:50) 9-R.Gould 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-5-B.Pinion.