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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 1 at the 63

San Francisco 49ers 20 – New York Giants 20

What Actually Happened

(10:43) 5-B.Pinion punts 47 yards to NYG 16, Center-86-K.Nelson. 15-Q.Henderson to NYG 23 for 7 yards (47-E.Lee).

The Three Options

GO +0.33 EP
Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +1.85 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 63, worth -3.55 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

PUNT -1.11 EP
What Happened
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 21, worth -1.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.44 EP