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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Giants 4th & 2 at the 2

New York Giants 7 – San Francisco 49ers 10

What Actually Happened

(1:53) 2-A.Rosas 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

The Three Options

GO +2.82 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.79 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 2, worth -0.37 EP
KICK +1.79 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 19-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.83 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.94 EP
PUNT -0.46 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.03 EP