Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Giants 4th & 15 at the 82

New York Giants 20 – San Francisco 49ers 20

(9:06) 9-R.Dixon punts 49 yards to SF 33, Center-51-Z.DeOssie. 18-D.Pettis pushed ob at SF 34 for 1 yard (30-A.Hamilton).

The Three Options

GO -2.89 EP

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 67, worth +1.57 EP
70% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 82, worth -4.75 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (99 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model