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Arizona Cardinals

HC Steve Wilks
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KC Home

Kansas City Chiefs

HC Andy Reid
Sunday 2018-11-11 · 13:00 Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City US ☀️ Clear Spread 16.5 O/U 49.5

Win Probability

ARI
9.9%
KC
90.1%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • ARI offense: -0.272 EPA/play over its last 8 games (31st in the league)
  • QB edge to KC: Patrick Mahomes (KC) +0.417 vs Josh Rosen (ARI) -0.282 EPA/dropback
  • KC offense: +0.291 EPA/play over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
  • ARI on 7 more days rest than KC
  • KC defense: +0.068 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (24th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

ARI 15
–
KC 32
Projected margin: KC by 17 Projected total: 47

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 10

ARI

Robert Nkemdiche DT Out Calf
Chad Williams WR Out Ankle
Jermaine Gresham TE Questionable Back
Budda Baker S Questionable Foot
Tre Boston S Questionable Chest
Mike Iupati G Questionable Back
Corey Peters DT Questionable Ankle
Justin Pugh G Questionable Hand
Jeremy Vujnovich G Questionable Hamstring

KC

Mitch Morse C Out Concussion
Eric Berry S Doubtful Heel
Cameron Erving G Questionable Illness
Anthony Hitchens LB Questionable Rib
Justin Houston LB Questionable Hamstring
Daniel Sorensen S Questionable Knee
Sammy Watkins WR Questionable Foot
Frank Zombo LB Questionable Hamstring

Pulled fresh for 2018 week 10 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

ARI 14
–
KC 26

Prediction missed by 5 pts on margin, 7 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 14:10 TD KC (14:10) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep middle to 10-T.Hill for 37 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 0 – KC 6
  • Q1 08:07 TD ARI (8:07) (Shotgun) 3-J.Rosen pass short right to 31-D.Johnson for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 6 – KC 7
  • Q1 03:05 FG KC (3:05) 7-H.Butker 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt. ARI 7 – KC 10
  • Q2 12:35 FG KC (12:35) 7-H.Butker 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt. ARI 7 – KC 13
  • Q2 05:36 TD KC (5:36) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short middle to 10-T.Hill for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on KC-10-T.Hill, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced between downs. ARI 7 – KC 19
  • Q3 07:50 TD ARI (7:50) 31-D.Johnson up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 13 – KC 20
  • Q4 10:24 TD KC (10:24) 32-S.Ware up the middle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 14 – KC 26

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 ARI 4th & 8 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (1:39) 2-A.Lee punts 53 yards to KC 20, Center-46-A.Brewer. 10-T.Hill pushed ob at KC 18 for -2 yards (92-D.Gardeck).

  • Q2 KC 4th & 11 at the 28
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 80%

    (12:35) 7-H.Butker 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.

  • Q2 ARI 4th & 8 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (10:32) 2-A.Lee punts 43 yards to KC 27, Center-46-A.Brewer, out of bounds.

  • Q2 KC 4th & 11 at the 64
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (:26) 2-D.Colquitt punts 52 yards to ARI 12, Center-41-J.Winchester. 13-C.Kirk to ARI 18 for 6 yards (35-C.Ward).

  • Q3 KC 4th & 12 at the 49
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 30%

    (2:38) 2-D.Colquitt punts 49 yards to end zone, Center-41-J.Winchester, Touchback.

  • Q3 ARI 4th & 1 at the 71
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.80 EP
    p(convert) 68%

    (:28) 2-A.Lee punts 47 yards to KC 24, Center-46-A.Brewer, out of bounds.

  • Q4 KC 4th & 17 at the 67
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (12:58) 2-D.Colquitt punts 52 yards to ARI 15, Center-41-J.Winchester. 13-C.Kirk to ARI 17 for 2 yards (19-M.Kemp).

  • Q4 ARI 4th & 20 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 22%

    (8:11) 2-A.Lee punts 55 yards to KC 18, Center-46-A.Brewer. 10-T.Hill for 82 yards, TOUCHDOWN NULLIFIED by Penalty. PENALTY on KC-84-D.Harris, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at KC 20.

  • Q4 KC 4th & 7 at the 87
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48%

    (6:22) 2-D.Colquitt punts 48 yards to ARI 39, Center-41-J.Winchester. 13-C.Kirk to ARI 34 for -5 yards (26-Dam. Williams). PENALTY on ARI-16-T.Sherfield, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at ARI 34.

  • Q4 KC 4th & 10 at the 40 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.55 EP
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 52%

    (2:27) 2-D.Colquitt punts 32 yards to ARI 8, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 13-C.Kirk.

  • Q4 ARI 4th & 4 at the 59 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (:59) (Shotgun) 3-J.Rosen pass short right to 11-L.Fitzgerald to 50 for 9 yards (23-K.Fuller).