Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 4 at the 59

Arizona Cardinals 14 – Kansas City Chiefs 26

(:59) (Shotgun) 3-J.Rosen pass short right to 11-L.Fitzgerald to 50 for 9 yards (23-K.Fuller).

The Three Options

GO -0.41 EP

What Happened

44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +1.21 EP
56% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 59, worth -1.68 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

Chose GO ✓ matched the model